South American Leagues · resolved market
Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f871d298ceb410af90dc99daccb2e3a30265f80cbc766a9eb5dfed54ba9f819
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 49c | 6,123$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.2 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 51c | 3,250$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,592.28 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 50c | 2,055$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.5 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 50c | 937.69$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.85 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 51c | 839.58$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.39 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 50c | 696.22$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.59 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Over | 37c | 511.65$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.31 | 153 | 26.1%40 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…1dfcbacked Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 249.8$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.32 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 236.69$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.72 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 50c | 176.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.22 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…c99abacked Over | 50c | 161.42$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.71 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 29c | 124.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 138 | 28.3%39 W · 99 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Over | 51c | 122.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c97…f237backed Over | 50c | 121.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 49.8%106 W · 107 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Under | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 51c | 72.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 49c | 67.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…917ebacked Under | 54c | 42.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a77…8b53backed Under | 55c | 25.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2f…4520backed Under | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 162 | 66%107 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Under | 59c | 17.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 65c | 15.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Recoleta FC vs. Santos FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)Recoleta FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.