CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs XI Esport (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f9a633749bd06a919e37e1b35b4dde95aaf7b9c4fd9b4310e6e49b82575fdf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MANA eSportsof MANA eSports, XI Esport
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d8e…349fbacked XI Esport | 49c | 411.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked XI Esport | 17c | 286.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed MANA eSports | 74c | 274$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed MANA eSports | 78c | 234.77$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked XI Esport | 30c | 232.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed MANA eSports | 59c | 154.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 229 | 42.8%98 W · 131 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa226…5092backed XI Esport | 25c | 121.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked XI Esport | 23c | 81.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…0acbbacked MANA eSports | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6644…e9fabacked MANA eSports | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MANA eSports | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed MANA eSports | 53c | 27.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6be1…36d8backed MANA eSports | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad4e…12f1backed MANA eSports | 66c | 27.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.