Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-02-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fbc6e139801da8ce18b18b0f8989350d91b2dccf7d823845cbfc39738296382
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 30c | 1,800$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 1,376$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.19 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 54c | 778.8$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.3 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 52c | 483.52$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.82 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed No | 70c | 342.18$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.18 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 30c | 330$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 56c | 288.74$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.09 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 34c | 221.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.51 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 186.38$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 31c | 181.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 60c | 144.5$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 66c | 125.3$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 53c | 107.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…a7a9backed Yes | 57c | 94.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Yes | 34c | 94.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 27c | 72.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed No | 70c | 71.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…4167backed No | 67c | 59.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…13d4backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed No | 50c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed No | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 70c | 30.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-02-14?this page
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?No won
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-02-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.