Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-02-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7931ca4c8a206b10020fef8ddebfea438996ad2c446518cf345f65c63630cbe6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 21c | 7,889$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.72 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 12c | 1,400$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.88 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 69c | 1,285$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.16 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 24c | 1,265$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.89 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…a583backed Yes | 8c | 1,177$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 62c | 1,069$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.69 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 40c | 775.98$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.98 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 56c | 569.2$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.66 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 43c | 562.12$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.13 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 19c | 536.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 57c | 534.87$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.87 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed Yes | 36c | 528.79$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.79 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 66c | 415.13$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.3 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Yes | 30c | 336.79$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.96 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858d…9d9fbacked Yes | 30c | 308.33$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.33 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked No | 55c | 229.71$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.34 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 78c | 165.83$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.91 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 56c | 154.78$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked Yes | 44c | 136.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 27c | 130.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 43c | 126.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.37 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 42c | 118.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.26 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 43c | 99.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee81…328cbacked No | 21c | 71.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 44c | 68.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed No | 46c | 63.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Yes | 41c | 55.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…c5c5backed Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Yes | 44c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Yes | 23c | 48.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 57c | 45.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 43c | 44.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…18ddbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…2517backed Yes | 44c | 31.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48eb…8ec4backed Yes | 43c | 30.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x458b…67edbacked Yes | 43c | 30.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4089…67f9backed Yes | 43c | 30.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64fe…414cbacked Yes | 43c | 28.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…1d56backed Yes | 43c | 26.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 56c | 25.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…c503backed Yes | 44c | 25.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…c08cbacked No | 58c | 24.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d3…525dbacked Yes | 43c | 23.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7d…2353backed No | 58c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…505dbacked No | 58c | 21.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550b…90c3backed No | 58c | 21.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5057…520ebacked No | 58c | 20.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fa…0558backed No | 59c | 19.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…3756backed No | 58c | 19.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…db3ebacked No | 57c | 19.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5a…f431backed No | 58c | 19.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed No | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…640ebacked No | 58c | 19.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58e2…f282backed No | 58c | 18.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-02-14?this page
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?No won
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-02-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.