Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal vs. Leeds United end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x602b68525568b35b39d0b2802b793504109201a4e8d425d3ac40140f9c20f751
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 12c | 3,600$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 287 | 36.2%104 W · 183 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 11c | 2,482$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.99 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 18c | 1,967$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 2c | 1,087$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc202…2afdbacked Yes | 19c | 1,072$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…1ab3backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…80adbacked Yes | 26c | 922.04$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 17c | 724.22$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.12 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 10c | 693.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 74c | 599.04$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.75 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 80c | 588.24$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.78 | 306 | 66%202 W · 104 L | +57.3wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Yes | 18c | 570.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…b153backed Yes | 5c | 469.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 15c | 399.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 18c | 333.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Yes | 18c | 305.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c3…f584backed Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed Yes | 18c | 199.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Yes | 21c | 171.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…d80abacked Yes | 16c | 152.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes | 16c | 151.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf783…9037backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…1524backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dee…a0f4backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 12c | 111.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…739bbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef3…a321backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 16c | 69.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 16c | 64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…6f51backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ae…b45cbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal vs. Leeds United end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-08-23?Yes won
- Will Leeds United win on 2025-08-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.