Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6036d5474e2586e10b8aabe18e317a2a28ed3c5fb55b6957edc1e6fee8bc70a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeda7…7b78backed No | 2c | 1,338$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…4fd8backed Yes | 64c | 149.97$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa981…82b8backed No | 21c | 144.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed No | 19c | 98.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…5ac4backed No | 76c | 65.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 41c | 59.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f4…4b3dbacked Yes | 74c | 54.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…4107backed No | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…a414backed Yes | 62c | 22.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 72c | 21.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 145 | 75.9%110 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked Yes | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes | 59c | 16.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.