MLB · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Reds: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6056321fec5b1adb3c08374fea0594555b7a7cce53d359aec78370dc5e78e853
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 63c | 300$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.4 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Under | 37c | 299.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Under | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 59c | 181.32$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 58c | 181.17$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Under | 37c | 130.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 543 | 45.5%247 W · 296 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cae…cee2backed Under | 42c | 107.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…11e2backed Under | 41c | 104.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…b1c8backed Under | 42c | 95.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c98…b0e9backed Over | 63c | 66.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa634…d7b4backed Over | 63c | 65.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8723…8ef5backed Over | 63c | 62.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0626…fdd0backed Over | 62c | 60.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Under | 38c | 58.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 549 | 41%225 W · 324 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18f…df57backed Under | 42c | 56.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e50…d9abbacked Over | 62c | 53.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…71fdbacked Under | 41c | 53.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc384…4ef7backed Over | 63c | 51.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…c306backed Over | 63c | 51.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4c…b708backed Over | 63c | 48.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…8692backed Under | 42c | 41.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 59c | 18.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cardinals vs. Reds: O/U 7.5this page
- Cardinals vs. RedsCardinals won
- Spread: Reds (-1.5)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.