Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK Qarabag beat Lyon?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60c5b4a69c88bc2de2da76519f09088b564355ba987b36e6994e25cf568dba4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31cf…8834backed No | 73c | 5,383$3,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.53 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 27c | 3,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.12 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 24c | 1,006$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.38 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Yes | 28c | 999.98$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed Yes | 26c | 625.81$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.71 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 68c | 376.75$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.56 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…36b4backed Yes | 32c | 284.59$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked No | 71c | 113.23$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 31c | 100.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea55…2b03backed No | 73c | 68.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 32c | 47.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Qarabag beat Lyon?this page
- Will Lyon beat FK Qarabag?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.