Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Lyon beat FK Qarabag?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x710920ceb728fffa404a2053a1ebdd883d34f97e23e099d8c12f360034f2053d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 51c | 3,047$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,553.79 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…12f8backed Yes | 50c | 2,478$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed Yes | 48c | 2,385$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.3 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 53c | 2,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.97 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 51c | 1,803$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.05 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…73eebacked Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 51c | 999.99$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 49c | 989.79$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.79 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bf…b25ebacked No | 54c | 900$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 47c | 895.74$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.74 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Yes | 49c | 725.59$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.05 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 44c | 613.97$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.53 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 50c | 574.69$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.27 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…f2f1backed Yes | 50c | 456$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 48c | 447.42$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.76 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…ec8abacked Yes | 52c | 425.98$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 48c | 375$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…9fd5backed Yes | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…fe44backed Yes | 49c | 297.33$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa075…09fdbacked Yes | 48c | 250.48$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f90…38e7backed Yes | 50c | 218.01$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 47c | 213$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.89 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d63…aa21backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0c…ad7cbacked Yes | 69c | 200.01$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 49c | 138.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…2d34backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Yes | 49c | 104$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked No | 50c | 100.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bb…ad38backed Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740c…1fe7backed Yes | 48c | 54.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff5…ce78backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1179…710bbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 63cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c65…8291backed Yes | 51c | 29.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e78…b014backed No | 51c | 20.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0e…ea18backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lyon beat FK Qarabag?this page
- Will FK Qarabag beat Lyon?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.