MLB · resolved market
Pirates vs. Cardinals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60ca910a46bb003eafdf2120cb5c3cb445032df1ed02068d496af18575e46501
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 58c | 3,176$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.24 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 42c | 2,651$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.66 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41e…d27dbacked Under | 46c | 1,305$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.67 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 54c | 1,131$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.53 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Under | 42c | 659.06$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.95 | 549 | 41%225 W · 324 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 58c | 517$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.86 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7be6backed Under | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Under | 41c | 161.11$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.14 | 543 | 45.5%247 W · 296 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 54c | 131.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Over | 58c | 130$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…25d3backed Under | 44c | 63.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b4…913bbacked Under | 45c | 62.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2171…bc1fbacked Under | 46c | 58.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dad…bfcdbacked Under | 46c | 57.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4139…f610backed Over | 57c | 48.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d6…f330backed Over | 59c | 46.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Under | 41c | 46.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe85…9cadbacked Over | 58c | 45.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…43ffbacked Under | 46c | 44.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeed0…e5c0backed Over | 57c | 43.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d8…0b58backed Over | 58c | 43.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a6…7f82backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…95a1backed Over | 57c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 401 | 44.1%177 W · 224 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3da…0a04backed Over | 58c | 42.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8464…a2e0backed Over | 58c | 41.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28eb…6bbbbacked Under | 46c | 32.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9043…2465backed Under | 47c | 25.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…92efbacked Under | 45c | 24.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pirates vs. Cardinals: O/U 7.5this page
- Pirates vs. CardinalsCardinals won
- Spread: Cardinals (-1.5)Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.