College Football · resolved market
Cincinnati vs. Kansas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60d542b301f0455b36adbf5de1cec2a8c5e85b40aaa88752826c715bc17e7f26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnatiof Cincinnati, Kansas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Kansas | 64c | 27,487$17,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,607.7 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Kansas | 43c | 9,994$4,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,261.26 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cincinnati | 37c | 8,019$2,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,089.64 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Cincinnati | 33c | 7,736$2,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,183.15 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cincinnati | 35c | 7,688$2,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,997.2 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Kansas | 63c | 6,007$3,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,807.53 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Cincinnati | 39c | 3,903$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,365.81 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Cincinnati | 33c | 3,309$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208.57 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Kansas | 67c | 3,000$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Cincinnati | 33c | 2,598$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,733.7 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Cincinnati | 41c | 2,101$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.19 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cincinnati | 45c | 1,273$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.16 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati | 38c | 1,201$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.51 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Kansas | 30c | 1,033$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.58 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Kansas | 14c | 903.63$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.74 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Cincinnati | 33c | 767.53$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.06 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked Kansas | 47c | 754$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.85 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf35e…94cabacked Cincinnati | 54c | 606.79$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.78 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cincinnati | 40c | 560.11$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.04 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cincinnati | 38c | 450$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati | 51c | 444.1$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.75 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Kansas | 57c | 441.02$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.26 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Kansas | 13c | 423$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 81 | 4.9%4 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f8…e156backed Kansas | 64c | 360.3$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.2 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Cincinnati | 43c | 350.56$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.18 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…6137backed Cincinnati | 36c | 330$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.2 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Cincinnati | 34c | 266.04$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.59 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Kansas | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Kansas | 66c | 151.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…df87backed Kansas | 75c | 122$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Cincinnati | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Cincinnati | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b5…8763backed Kansas | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Cincinnati | 23c | 56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Cincinnati | 53c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…4992backed Kansas | 40c | 47.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.7wins | -0.38per pick | 51cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfab8…e432backed Kansas | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Kansas | 43c | 44.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed Kansas | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4055…8449backed Cincinnati | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kansas | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati vs. Kansasthis page
- O/U 55.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas (-5.5)Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.