Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 July 27-August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6109aac6e524729cbb513accdce7be1cf6928f764393353a75ac46bf7f430809
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4fe…324abacked Yes | 12c | 5,677$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 12c | 1,810$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.41 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 43c | 1,600$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.99 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 44c | 1,582$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.75 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe339…e01bbacked No | 73c | 1,436$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.88 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03b4…6ca1backed Yes | 4c | 1,410$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 14c | 1,325$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.39 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…d144backed Yes | 18c | 1,106$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.28 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed50…d884backed Yes | 9c | 698.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…cdc3backed Yes | 15c | 687.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77eb…9d5cbacked No | 80c | 620$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked No | 44c | 348.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.43 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 336.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b88…86c4backed Yes | 11c | 299.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb83…0dd9backed Yes | 8c | 265$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 11c | 240.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…9bfdbacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e36…33babacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…ad7fbacked No | 45c | 74.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6596…e186backed Yes | 23c | 69.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked Yes | 30c | 65.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba9…2210backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 61c | 54.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…d0f8backed No | 52c | 51.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x134e…d718backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +6.0wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…3991backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 77c | 31.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x492b…103fbacked No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0a…29a8backed No | 71c | 17.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cf…6964backed No | 72c | 14.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd6…c19ebacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 July 27-August 2?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 July 27-August 2?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 July 27-August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.