Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-02-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x615682752d4852556a5ed0d9c6efcb004dd27bb7a91f0c9ca53d77f609a3d572
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 1c | 37,046$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.92 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 3,174$2,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.1 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 10c | 1,811$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.62 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Yes | 8c | 925.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 78c | 828.34$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.06 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb207…c751backed No | 76c | 660$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 22c | 460$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.15 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Yes | 24c | 416.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 25c | 397.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 72c | 375.59$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.59 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…5fbbbacked Yes | 7c | 339.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 17c | 333.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 6c | 284.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 13c | 278.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53f7…2544backed Yes | 25c | 268$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked No | 77c | 236.39$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 24c | 213.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 7c | 205.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 24c | 149.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 30c | 134.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 78c | 107.89$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 35c | 71.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 36c | 71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78a7…7a6cbacked Yes | 25c | 70.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 76c | 70.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 30.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…d166backed No | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f98…0073backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e85…443ebacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-02-06?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-02-06?Yes won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.