Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd489d15fb70ab2b123c63cc6ce91d42aae83aee0600f08a954b92fd76f92da4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9de0…dacebacked Yes | 5c | 1,300$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…5804backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 74c | 918.7$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.26 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 77c | 526.81$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 22c | 480$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 26c | 385$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Yes | 48c | 361$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.82 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…9510backed Yes | 21c | 297.09$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked No | 74c | 270.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Yes | 16c | 172.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Yes | 47c | 161.7$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 131.53$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Yes | 47c | 130.8$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 11c | 123.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc842…21ebbacked Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 31.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-02-06?Yes won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-02-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.