Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-02-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92ff08f38b7427f637f10b485bae3ccc3c798f4d7a10afba265c9efb7607375b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 15c | 3,758$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.99 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 79c | 2,256$1,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.97 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed No | 2c | 1,773$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Yes | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed No | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…dacebacked No | 5c | 1,300$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…534ebacked No | 69c | 1,003$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 71c | 961.7$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.11 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 70c | 915.32$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.89 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 78c | 648.31$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.21 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed No | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 44c | 550$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 55c | 513.44$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.71 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Yes | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked No | 32c | 464.89$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 20c | 420.18$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.83 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Yes | 72c | 398.31$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.08 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 46c | 349.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.83 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 52c | 300$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed No | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 73c | 300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 22c | 268.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 54c | 261.67$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.76 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 57c | 243.58$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.1 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 43c | 227.68$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c2…3fc7backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +152.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 44c | 200$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 54c | 185.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 70c | 175.63$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…13d8backed No | 23c | 174.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 53c | 164.49$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.31 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked No | 48c | 158.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 15c | 135.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Yes | 76c | 131.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked No | 49c | 125.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 45c | 108$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 76c | 91.01$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 15c | 90.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd537…4bfabacked Yes | 53c | 88.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…846ebacked Yes | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Yes | 56c | 71.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked No | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…cfbbbacked Yes | 52c | 61.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…2ba1backed Yes | 72c | 59.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…2208backed Yes | 55c | 52.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fea8backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 77c | 40.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…d166backed Yes | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 69c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 47c | 26.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 46c | 26.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed No | 60c | 24.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 52c | 24.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 48c | 24.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 55c | 19.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 80c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-02-06?this page
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw?No won
- Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-02-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.