Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6167ebc9e58dcaf379cc6c4548d8e05908d199402f27a5e7f2a7bfb3973e543b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c51…fee7backed Yes | 0c | 16,103$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 1c | 1,510$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…40b7backed No | 66c | 664.11$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.7 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 34c | 392.59$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.26 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 360.93$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.43 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f56…ea85backed No | 75c | 332.86$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x043b…3380backed No | 58c | 329.69$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 25c | 249.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes | 25c | 249.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 69c | 227.21$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 58c | 184.14$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 28c | 181.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 180.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 150.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 146.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 130.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…6765backed No | 68c | 119.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 78c | 112.74$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 10c | 110.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 18c | 107.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc57a…ee16backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 21c | 98.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 71.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 71c | 69.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed Yes | 19c | 56.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 26c | 52.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 71c | 51.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…3bc7backed Yes | 23c | 45.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…8907backed Yes | 27c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e98…0bfcbacked Yes | 36c | 37.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8124…5400backed No | 58c | 32.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b5…7ca1backed No | 69c | 31.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…dd55backed No | 64c | 31.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 69c | 26.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 25.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb345…23d5backed No | 76c | 24.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…4b74backed No | 78c | 24.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 73c | 21.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 50c | 20.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…9752backed No | 62c | 19.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe314…3c94backed No | 74c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 71c | 18.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.