Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x619b5778c50582cec9ef0db0411941f1e1207040c8208cec50e4708f2e3bf16f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 62c | 823.43$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.79 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 678.84$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 21c | 445$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 23c | 391.37$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.02 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 61c | 390.71$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.99 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 59c | 279.72$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.08 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 64c | 270.67$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.86 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…38e4backed No | 11c | 221.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 211.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 207.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 44c | 196.77$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.42 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 7c | 196.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 12c | 185.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 35c | 185.61$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.81 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 47c | 179.22$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 49c | 169.63$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 41c | 141.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.92 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 66c | 130.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.97 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 55c | 123.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 17c | 122$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.82 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 36c | 112.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 31c | 101.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.12 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 52c | 99.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 47c | 97.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 30c | 95.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 52c | 94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 92.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 89.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 57c | 83.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 28c | 81.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 44c | 77.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 18c | 72.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 55c | 65.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 40c | 62.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 43c | 61.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 53c | 59.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 50c | 58.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 27c | 55.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 55c | 53.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 53.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 66c | 46.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 44c | 44.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Yes | 24c | 43.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 32c | 43.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 42.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 62c | 32.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 70c | 31.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…e72bbacked No | 47c | 29.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 47c | 28.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 66c | 26.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 67c | 26.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes | 54c | 26.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 55c | 24.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 48c | 23.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 63c | 21.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.