NHL · resolved market
AHL: Ontario Reign vs. Henderson Silver Knights
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61ffe83cccb9c2ed83960d1f7e714b3e46825dae5ff82a4064c4a2c246185ff8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ontario Reignof Ontario Reign, Henderson Silver Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Henderson Silver Knights | 42c | 3,744$1,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,586.93 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Ontario Reign | 58c | 1,542$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.13 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Ontario Reign | 58c | 1,216$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Ontario Reign | 57c | 280$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Ontario Reign | 57c | 237.75$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.23 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Ontario Reign | 57c | 182.38$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Ontario Reign | 57c | 147.89$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ac…5fd6backed Henderson Silver Knights | 42c | 115$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…1c06backed Ontario Reign | 58c | 103$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Henderson Silver Knights | 44c | 92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Ontario Reign | 57c | 76.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…2c2ebacked Henderson Silver Knights | 43c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d13…56febacked Henderson Silver Knights | 43c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Ontario Reign | 56c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Ontario Reign | 57c | 36.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Ontario Reign | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Henderson Silver Knights | 43c | 33.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Ontario Reign | 58c | 32.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Ontario Reign | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Ontario Reign | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed Ontario Reign | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…12d7backed Ontario Reign | 57c | 18.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.