Tennis · resolved market
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Gabriel Diallo vs Taylor Fritz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62dff7fe3127ac7739f6c5b812acdee635a51101580787cd9eb90454e8a91fdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fritzof Diallo, Fritz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Diallo | 0c | 13,714$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Fritz | 77c | 4,888$3,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.53 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Diallo | 23c | 3,817$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.69 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Diallo | 57c | 2,953$1,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,682.34 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Diallo | 49c | 2,472$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.96 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Fritz | 56c | 2,275$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.68 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Diallo | 24c | 1,920$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Fritz | 53c | 1,517$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.24 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Fritz | 58c | 1,379$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.37 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Fritz | 50c | 1,189$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.35 | 1,444 | 48.8%705 W · 739 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Diallo | 25c | 1,092$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.1 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Fritz | 77c | 1,032$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.04 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Fritz | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Fritz | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 527 | 44.6%235 W · 292 L | +30.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Diallo | 58c | 920.99$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.25 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Fritz | 43c | 833.37$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.78 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Diallo | 28c | 800$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Fritz | 76c | 740.13$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.63 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Fritz | 73c | 670.89$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.49 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Diallo | 40c | 510$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.43 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Fritz | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…e407backed Diallo | 26c | 329$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Fritz | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Diallo | 22c | 282$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Diallo | 21c | 271$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Fritz | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Fritz | 48c | 210.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.21 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Fritz | 50c | 201.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Fritz | 78c | 182.05$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Fritz | 72c | 166.58$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Fritz | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Fritz | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Fritz | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Fritz | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Diallo | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Diallo | 62c | 95.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Diallo | 20c | 92.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f23…e2c8backed Fritz | 78c | 35.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Fritz | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2,332 | 46.6%1,087 W · 1,245 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…141cbacked Fritz | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.