Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x635cff6b7b97f4ba01b8b2cd2f2fc5c71cafb88369b15009bd9c17da046879e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 72c | 2,053$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.58 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 67c | 1,789$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.02 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,150$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.5 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,053$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.37 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,028$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.64 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9dbabacked No | 66c | 855$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.7 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 71c | 666.08$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.71 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed No | 76c | 581.56$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.1 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 16c | 515.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 531 | 34.5%183 W · 348 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 39c | 456.67$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.1 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 24c | 352.53$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 197 | 32.5%64 W · 133 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 270 | 24.8%67 W · 203 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1a…6258backed Yes | 16c | 253.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 138 | 42%58 W · 80 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…041fbacked Yes | 27c | 187.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 17c | 161.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 239 | 26.4%63 W · 176 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 47c | 140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 202 | 39.6%80 W · 122 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 30c | 127.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 200 | 27%54 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…4404backed Yes | 23c | 125.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…86f6backed Yes | 26c | 102.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 60c | 47.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 265 | 48.3%128 W · 137 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3d…f39dbacked No | 72c | 19.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 71c | 18.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 71c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Derby County FC win on 2026-01-01?Yes won
- Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-01-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.