Tennis · resolved market
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x637040a449563835185ac5b6b61a04f2cbdb14e7aa23cb1cf6ebb95d6d1d3f39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Frederico Ferreira Silvaof Mathys Erhard, Frederico Ferreira Silva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6485…a265backed Mathys Erhard | 48c | 2,967$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424.25 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Frederico Ferreira Silva | 77c | 2,070$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.78 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mathys Erhard | 4c | 2,053$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Mathys Erhard | 46c | 1,310$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.57 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Mathys Erhard | 18c | 1,047$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.57 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Frederico Ferreira Silva | 47c | 1,023$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.06 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Frederico Ferreira Silva | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…657bbacked Mathys Erhard | 8c | 924.93$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 194 | 10.3%20 W · 174 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Mathys Erhard | 4c | 766.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Frederico Ferreira Silva | 76c | 701.74$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.69 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Mathys Erhard | 39c | 586.5$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.66 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Mathys Erhard | 37c | 502.61$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.19 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Frederico Ferreira Silva | 53c | 443.87$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.62 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Mathys Erhard | 19c | 419.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Frederico Ferreira Silva | 56c | 357.14$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.93 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Mathys Erhard | 47c | 325.88$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.9 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Mathys Erhard | 46c | 304.49$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x104f…04aabacked Mathys Erhard | 20c | 248.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 261 | 34.1%89 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Frederico Ferreira Silva | 55c | 228.31$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Mathys Erhard | 45c | 228.15$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.72 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Frederico Ferreira Silva | 60c | 226.8$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Frederico Ferreira Silva | 54c | 109.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Mathys Erhard | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Frederico Ferreira Silva | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Mathys Erhard | 37c | 95.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Frederico Ferreira Silva | 52c | 83.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Frederico Ferreira Silva | 47c | 76.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Frederico Ferreira Silva | 47c | 76.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Mathys Erhard | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,186 | 52.4%622 W · 564 L | +28.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Frederico Ferreira Silva | 56c | 72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Frederico Ferreira Silva | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Mathys Erhard | 44c | 55.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Frederico Ferreira Silva | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Frederico Ferreira Silva | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 749 | 55.1%413 W · 336 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…765dbacked Mathys Erhard | 32c | 42.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 327 | 32.1%105 W · 222 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Mathys Erhard | 46c | 41.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Frederico Ferreira Silva | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e8…c85fbacked Frederico Ferreira Silva | 56c | 35.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Frederico Ferreira Silva | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfd…63bfbacked Mathys Erhard | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Mathys Erhard | 47c | 26.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.