Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63864a60a416ea7f7a6c577505a3bdcc0251b629af0c15c638356e31abd54265
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.09 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…5ac3backed Over | 22c | 1,798$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 20c | 1,300$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 665.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.37 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Over | 23c | 270$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…5f1dbacked Over | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 77c | 58.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8d…1be3backed Over | 26c | 54.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7542…7d09backed Over | 26c | 51.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 24c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 80c | 40.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68d…ad25backed Under | 75c | 17.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431d…4457backed Under | 75c | 13.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.