Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cb40740ba48a7317aae29ae9c122491d6efb181b3891ed2af6da11619d5e476
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 10,766$7,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,008.82 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Over | 32c | 6,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,079.66 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 45c | 4,445$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,444.69 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 55c | 4,001$2,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200.55 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240.01 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 44c | 1,990$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.41 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 54c | 1,704$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.16 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 30c | 1,657$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.01 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 45c | 1,200$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…a795backed Under | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 44c | 772.45$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.12 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 66c | 661.44$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.29 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Under | 64c | 625$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 40c | 497.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.71 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Over | 44c | 450$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 44c | 360$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.6 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 51c | 349$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.32 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 316.27$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.15 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Over | 33c | 245$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 36c | 196.42$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.42 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 71c | 176.23$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 30c | 166.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.83 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 15c | 160$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0d…0789backed Over | 27c | 137.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 46c | 127$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 125.71$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.57 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 41c | 123.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Over | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Over | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 70c | 115.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Over | 32c | 103.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 39c | 94.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.87 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb15…17b4backed Under | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Over | 19c | 77.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 33c | 74.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 45c | 62.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 41c | 62.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Over | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x46d9…4da7backed Under | 67c | 59.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…3105backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…5bc8backed Under | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 33c | 41.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Over | 45c | 30.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Under | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.