Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8972f19778631040d2c2475626c5d81777638c9491ab8e4141eeae280a972b0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 1,400$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.71 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Over | 73c | 486.3$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.3 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -8.5wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 3c | 470.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +869.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 35c | 453.97$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.51 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 67c | 373.28$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.28 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 63c | 317.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.54 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…ef3abacked Over | 73c | 152.44$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 42c | 134.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…0e75backed Over | 58c | 112.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 47cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Over | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 40c | 83.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 72c | 83.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…a4e6backed Over | 73c | 63.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…4e55backed Over | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…9127backed Over | 77c | 44.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 54c | 40.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 57c | 35.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Over | 73c | 34.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…c577backed Over | 70c | 30.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f6…fcd2backed Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 57c | 26.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 77c | 22.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 72c | 15.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Lorient vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.