Europa Conference League · resolved market
SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x638a38432bc897dd534994723c197e6459245eee945c399a09240774a44147de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ef…cecebacked Over | 62c | 3,779$2,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,339.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 2,970$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,841.38 | 3,247 | 42.2%1,370 W · 1,877 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 53c | 1,496$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.51 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 77c | 600$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 38c | 444$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.28 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 30c | 286.49$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 46c | 265.25$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.2 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 38c | 211$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.82 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 173.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.9 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 62c | 50.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Under | 40c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…e342backed Over | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 65cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 677 | 56.3%381 W · 296 L | +34.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7c…1214backed Over | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 61c | 20.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Over | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed Over | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 2.5this page
- SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.