Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Nürnberg vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63db333366439f149245ee781aaab65ca6892ce395d3e5c90d059580abaf6ab9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 2,613$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.15 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 76c | 2,400$1,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 77c | 645.74$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.74 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 65c | 618.21$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.21 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 38c | 557.15$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 43c | 498.31$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.27 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 26c | 377.53$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.67 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 24c | 274.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 33c | 149.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Over | 76c | 82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Over | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 76c | 55.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 47 | 85.1%40 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Over | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Over | 76c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 76c | 29.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 75c | 19.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SV 07 Elversberg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.