Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Nürnberg vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7aa29d37c93e20dd7b0dfd6df1ef0ddbeb380e1c91de43d2298e1a0c7167b8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81d3…6cf4backed Over | 51c | 3,439$1,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,683.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…88c9backed Over | 51c | 2,921$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8169…209dbacked Under | 49c | 1,273$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7582…109abacked Under | 49c | 1,203$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x637b…2bc8backed Under | 49c | 1,109$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…7629backed Under | 49c | 1,017$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4c…e7bebacked Under | 49c | 911$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a86…24b6backed Under | 49c | 847$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 588.08$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.27 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…5ddebacked Under | 52c | 552.08$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 55c | 469.48$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 48c | 388.31$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.39 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 42c | 328$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.48 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 307.4$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.18 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 49c | 149.02$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 51c | 149.02$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.02 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Over | 51c | 139$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 38c | 117$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcb…1879backed Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 54c | 96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Over | 52c | 73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Over | 51c | 73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Over | 51c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 45c | 59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 58.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…f733backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Under | 49c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Under | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Under | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed Under | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Under | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SV 07 Elversberg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SV 07 Elversberg: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.