CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs STATE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group D
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63fd56f57247f1d1f2ffe1ce0268e63111d5743861b617c17a3dc7d53fadc369
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lilmixof Lilmix, STATE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbec7…5977backed STATE | 70c | 2,581$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.74 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Lilmix | 30c | 2,519$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.73 | 284 | 53.5%152 W · 132 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lilmix | 38c | 1,688$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.72 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked STATE | 48c | 1,259$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.34 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Lilmix | 22c | 750.94$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.73 | 508 | 33.5%170 W · 338 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked STATE | 69c | 684.23$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.44 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Lilmix | 27c | 678.59$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.22 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked STATE | 45c | 669.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 362 | 53.3%193 W · 169 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Lilmix | 54c | 499.57$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.8 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed STATE | 54c | 396$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.84 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Lilmix | 67c | 384.75$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.42 | 154 | 42.2%65 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…8dcfbacked Lilmix | 34c | 306$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.56 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +10.2wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Lilmix | 60c | 247.93$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…3d80backed Lilmix | 30c | 231$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Lilmix | 58c | 199.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae1…befbbacked Lilmix | 29c | 178.3$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.75 | 409 | 50.6%207 W · 202 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed STATE | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…bffabacked Lilmix | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 789 | 63.8%503 W · 286 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked STATE | 71c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb789…1eccbacked Lilmix | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…6631backed STATE | 47c | 25.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ad…44febacked Lilmix | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x821b…8b2bbacked Lilmix | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed STATE | 71c | 20.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc8…6abbbacked STATE | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 71cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs STATE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group Dthis page
- Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs STATE - Map 1 WinnerLilmix won
- Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs STATE - Map 2 WinnerLilmix won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.