Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho Vandals: O/U 146.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x642fa1294b1b2db5d0c9927a5993e0b5d8ccc58c29e1ff445025623084789f6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 50c | 23,000$11,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,580 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Over | 50c | 18,390$9,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,194.79 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1e…8972backed Over | 51c | 6,098$3,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,110 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Over | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.97 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 50c | 1,995$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.5 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Over | 51c | 1,983$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.08 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 47c | 1,847$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.15 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 49c | 870.24$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.28 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 50c | 643.32$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.66 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Under | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 50c | 396.5$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.25 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Over | 51c | 392.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.22 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 316.26$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.64 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 51c | 270.18$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.08 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0640…1cd6backed Under | 53c | 241.43$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.55 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 49c | 202.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 50c | 198.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.13 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Over | 51c | 158.45$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.81 | 176 | 61.4%108 W · 68 L | +17.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 52c | 114.31$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Under | 49c | 101.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…d57bbacked Under | 47c | 100.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2d7dbacked Under | 53c | 93.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…6179backed Under | 49c | 60.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 39.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4a…7045backed Under | 47c | 25.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho Vandals: O/U 146.5this page
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho VandalsIdaho Vandals won
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho Vandals: O/U 147.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.