Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho Vandals: O/U 147.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5642af02037d2f038f880f7cae8fac6e98e93f06deed42dded9c3b81bd369e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 52c | 23,000$11,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,120 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1e…8972backed Over | 49c | 20,371$10,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,049.09 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Over | 48c | 15,658$7,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,515.74 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Under | 54c | 6,923$3,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,161.08 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 50c | 5,993$2,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,999.03 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 45c | 3,985$1,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,793.39 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Under | 51c | 3,500$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.84 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Over | 51c | 2,989$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.27 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 47c | 1,964$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.9 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 1,552$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.07 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Under | 49c | 1,170$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.79 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 51c | 653.06$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…e73abacked Over | 48c | 521$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.08 | 267 | 49.1%131 W · 136 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 418.77$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.45 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…f4cbbacked Under | 53c | 374.07$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.81 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0640…1cd6backed Under | 55c | 362.54$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.28 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 51c | 255.03$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.96 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 49c | 231$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.22 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Over | 49c | 212.86$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.77 | 176 | 61.4%108 W · 68 L | +17.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 49c | 198.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.11 | 388 | 37.6%146 W · 242 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…3cb4backed Under | 53c | 185.16$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 54c | 114.43$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 49c | 101.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 408 | 49.8%203 W · 205 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Under | 53c | 99.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Under | 51c | 99.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 383 | 51.7%198 W · 185 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2d7dbacked Under | 55c | 90.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Over | 45c | 46.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 43.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Over | 51c | 39.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 51c | 38.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 175 | 51.4%90 W · 85 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…d57bbacked Under | 50c | 35.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…7cfabacked Under | 51c | 32.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 46c | 27.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…ac0abacked Over | 51c | 27.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 356 | 50.8%181 W · 175 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fe…8243backed Under | 51c | 23.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 51c | 20.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho Vandals: O/U 147.5this page
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho VandalsIdaho Vandals won
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho Vandals: O/U 146.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.