WNBA · resolved market
Fever vs. Mystics
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x645834f88e1ea510c07bb21a98147e6d93bb82201d15c87e07db1aeb91ec657e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Feverof Fever, Mystics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked Fever | 61c | 8,270$5,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,212.31 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Mystics | 39c | 6,664$2,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,585.76 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Mystics | 32c | 4,039$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.6 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Mystics | 39c | 2,687$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.53 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Fever | 67c | 2,168$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.53 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Fever | 68c | 2,087$1,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.98 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Fever | 69c | 1,276$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.9 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Mystics | 33c | 820.33$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.71 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Fever | 69c | 817$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.09 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Fever | 64c | 651.42$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.36 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Mystics | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Mystics | 29c | 351.44$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.98 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mystics | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37f7…8dacbacked Mystics | 33c | 302.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mystics | 33c | 299.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…f925backed Fever | 70c | 286.28$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Mystics | 21c | 232.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -68%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Fever | 66c | 231.3$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.64 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Mystics | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Fever | 78c | 184.88$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 318 | 47.8%152 W · 166 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Fever | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Mystics | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…e4c7backed Fever | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed Mystics | 39c | 89.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed Mystics | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Fever | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Mystics | 38c | 50.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4c…3bb8backed Mystics | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Fever | 68c | 37.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…5543backed Mystics | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Fever | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4db…0a02backed Fever | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Fever | 71c | 20.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52df…9adfbacked Fever | 78c | 17.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…2e3abacked Fever | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Fever | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…2149backed Fever | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.