MLB · resolved market
Cubs vs. Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x646a82175a90d5e038c0cfec23b63d8b1ad9e80ee70a25f0c3a1686b50cde07a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cubsof Cubs, Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c7e…70ddbacked Cubs | 60c | 45,500$27,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,200 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc61…805dbacked Pirates | 40c | 45,500$18,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Cubs | 57c | 10,060$5,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,325.6 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Pirates | 43c | 8,964$3,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,854.36 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Pirates | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.98 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…78f5backed Pirates | 43c | 1,717$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Pirates | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Cubs | 62c | 900$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 406 | 29.1%118 W · 288 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Cubs | 57c | 837.44$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.1 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cubs | 57c | 767.54$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.04 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Pirates | 42c | 556.9$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.9 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Cubs | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Cubs | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Pirates | 45c | 450$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Cubs | 58c | 393.6$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.31 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cubs | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc62b…de3cbacked Pirates | 12c | 278.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Cubs | 57c | 228$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cubs | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cubs | 59c | 168.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Cubs | 55c | 111.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Pirates | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 182 | 36.3%66 W · 116 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cubs | 55c | 93.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Cubs | 49c | 85.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Cubs | 58c | 83.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pirates | 40c | 68.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Cubs | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cubs | 57c | 41.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cubs | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cubs | 64c | 25.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked Pirates | 43c | 23.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,086 | 46.2%502 W · 584 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Cubs | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Cubs | 56c | 17.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Cubs | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.