Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64943fee184881d77f8b50e6398a321c474591140e7e67f096eab6bfcd24c048
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 2c | 7,455$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.55 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 63c | 399.21$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 15c | 362.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.36 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 71c | 255.71$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 16c | 230.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 39c | 223.37$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.44 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 5c | 207.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed No | 57c | 198.78$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.25 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 23c | 194.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.28 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 185.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.6 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea60…3467backed Yes | 79c | 182.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 176.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 16c | 176.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 11c | 161.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 161.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.53 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 125.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 20c | 112.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 108.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 99.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 12c | 97.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.29 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 87.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 80c | 86.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 86.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 79c | 79.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 24c | 78.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 22c | 76.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…2116backed No | 18c | 75.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 18c | 74.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked No | 74c | 73.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18b…ea34backed Yes | 24c | 72.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 19c | 69.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 63c | 62.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 56.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…2fd0backed Yes | 27c | 54.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 70c | 45.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…b7b1backed No | 33c | 43.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 39c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…89babacked Yes | 70c | 34.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 34c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 51c | 32.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 76c | 32.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 79c | 30.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…222fbacked Yes | 40c | 30.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 80c | 30.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 74c | 30.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9c…9aa1backed No | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -5.2wins | -0.29per pick | 68cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed Yes | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 68c | 28.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…dadabacked Yes | 70c | 27.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7849backed Yes | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 22.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 77c | 15.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 70c | 14.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 77c | 14.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.