Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0be9a1d6adcf35eaec6554ad8c965998667f9fb33de5b052f357105b3426b36f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 61c | 637.94$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.97 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 66c | 618.31$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.82 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 3c | 466.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 34c | 246.17$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 244.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 56c | 228.49$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.66 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 42c | 224.87$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.48 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 222.8$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 44c | 199.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 13c | 199.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 40c | 165.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 27c | 137.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 110.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…1a0ebacked Yes | 43c | 109.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 61c | 109.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 45c | 104.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 58c | 101.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 36c | 99.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 57c | 96.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 52c | 96.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 95.19$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 37c | 89.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 59c | 74.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 72.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 69.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…2116backed No | 56c | 67.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 63.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 63c | 58.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1211…2c42backed Yes | 40c | 56.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 32c | 55.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 40c | 53.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 54c | 50.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 60c | 49.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 48.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 25c | 48.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 30c | 47.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 42c | 44.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 37c | 44.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 44c | 43.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 55c | 43.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd728…97a9backed Yes | 47c | 40.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…ee44backed Yes | 47c | 40.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9c…e333backed Yes | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…2d5fbacked Yes | 48c | 38.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 45cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…222fbacked Yes | 45c | 38.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 56c | 35.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 58c | 32.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18b…ea34backed Yes | 45c | 31.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 57c | 30.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…c694backed Yes | 42c | 28.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 60c | 25.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 60c | 25.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 43c | 24.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ea…ff80backed Yes | 45c | 24.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 58c | 24.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 55c | 22.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…872abacked Yes | 48c | 22.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2598…17dfbacked No | 59c | 22.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 61c | 21.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 21.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…612fbacked No | 56c | 20.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 59c | 17.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 79c | 17.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.