Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64a333cd5750f43a84650e2cf0370b58a1d734d9e678aaeb53da563f6a0e6ac7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 71c | 599.19$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.12 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes | 57c | 387.29$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.26 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 310.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 29c | 241.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.13 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 65c | 185.95$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 16c | 175.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.63 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 11c | 175.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.18 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 174.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 38c | 155.36$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 151.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.03 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 22c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 43c | 149.68$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.97 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 30c | 137.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 41c | 129.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 37c | 123.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 121.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 12c | 92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 47c | 91.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 13c | 79.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.88 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 55c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 56.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 62c | 55.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 65c | 55.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 52.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…e470backed Yes | 43c | 45.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 40.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 52c | 36.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 32.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 63c | 31.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked No | 51c | 27.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 73c | 27.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 52c | 26.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 50c | 25.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 77c | 25.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 49c | 24.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 71c | 23.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 50c | 20.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…88d2backed No | 72c | 19.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 74c | 18.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…dcd2backed Yes | 69c | 17.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…c4a3backed Yes | 79c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.