Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x996eb284bcd4b6d89ff11808d9298e2216bdd56ce09ac82b3c4114b9f14300b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 386.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 4c | 250.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 235.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 15c | 224.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 20c | 202.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 80c | 113.1$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 19c | 83.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…dcd2backed Yes | 14c | 83.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 70.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 34.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…280bbacked No | 79c | 30.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 80c | 30.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 73c | 27.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 78c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 77c | 25.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 80c | 20.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f32cbacked No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 74c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.