Fifa International · resolved market
Will Spain win on 2025-10-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64c75058dc333f0b8f7928483d4e544abbf641f12c07cf5def5f4df28aceaafc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 3c | 10,100$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.5 | 250 | 38.8%97 W · 153 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8d…8189backed No | 3c | 7,609$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.17 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 2c | 5,817$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.78 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 3c | 5,529$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.54 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 2c | 4,602$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed No | 3c | 4,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 385 | 26.8%103 W · 282 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 3c | 3,700$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 3c | 2,296$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 2c | 2,179$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 2c | 2,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 274 | 34.3%94 W · 180 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed No | 2c | 1,619$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 2c | 1,336$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 3c | 999.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…bc45backed No | 2c | 950$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 2c | 899.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf7…ccc7backed No | 2c | 899.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed No | 3c | 862.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…9b21backed No | 2c | 540$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 3c | 467.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 2c | 435$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Spain win on 2025-10-14?this page
- Will Bulgaria win on 2025-10-14?No won
- Will Spain vs. Bulgaria end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.