World Politics · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64f3b6f268a0577a6ede086cd5605c3c6a694561cb6e803457e1a286f065624f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76f4…82dabacked No | 50c | 389.66$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.53 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 263.17$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 50c | 207.82$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.91 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…f1e6backed No | 74c | 110.1$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 105.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 45c | 105.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…ae18backed Yes | 33c | 105.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d5…0560backed Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 34c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 50c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 61c | 39.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 72c | 20.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…5bf5backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 18.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on August 16?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on August 16?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on August 16?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on August 16?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.