World Politics · resolved market
Will London have less than 20mm of precipitation in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65034eb62e5812098462aa0452ae0fb54db99b55d1763ae2d64317af8aae5c6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 10c | 444.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 74c | 402.24$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.43 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 320.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…9e76backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +284.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7438…b741backed No | 13c | 127.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 25c | 117.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +171.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…fb18backed Yes | 40c | 117.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 62c | 106.05$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked No | 76c | 75.09$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 77cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab4…c6d0backed Yes | 21c | 70.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +370.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc9…d68bbacked Yes | 55c | 65.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 50.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 49.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x918f…907cbacked Yes | 27c | 40.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 67c | 29.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4006…f55bbacked Yes | 68c | 29.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…ecdfbacked Yes | 67c | 22.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf7…e614backed Yes | 64c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 77c | 15.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will London have less than 20mm of precipitation in April?this page
- Will London have 70mm or more of precipitation in April?No won
- Will London have between 20-30mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will London have between 30-40mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will London have between 40-50mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will London have between 50-60mm of precipitation in April?No won
- Will London have between 60-70mm of precipitation in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.