Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Newcastle (-0.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x656e00fb6b55c8dfafbd7adbaa14ea69e2bb5abec335d0694a03a2cb3ef6b7ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brentfordof Newcastle, Brentford
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Newcastle | 38c | 1,629$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.03 | 218 | 53.2%116 W · 102 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Brentford | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.9 | 109 | 62.4%68 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Brentford | 63c | 251.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.99 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +44%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce7f…de96backed Newcastle | 39c | 197.44$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Newcastle | 38c | 104.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Newcastle | 38c | 96.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…d718backed Brentford | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…874abacked Brentford | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Newcastle | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Newcastle | 38c | 51.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 362 | 59.1%214 W · 148 L | +23.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb745…981bbacked Newcastle | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…4d9abacked Brentford | 44c | 47.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb500…1363backed Brentford | 62c | 42.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Newcastle | 37c | 41.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Newcastle | 58c | 37.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59eb…fa33backed Brentford | 62c | 32.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…1c75backed Brentford | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…815bbacked Brentford | 38c | 28.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…2f76backed Brentford | 62c | 27.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf64b…7b63backed Brentford | 63c | 22.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Newcastle (-0.5)this page
- Brentford vs. Newcastle: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Brentford vs. Newcastle: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.