Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Alexandre Muller
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x657bff03ac255934c73f1b47f470b1a628047c4dc7ecd700a0d1e3b07c7c9d72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kecmanovicof Kecmanovic, Muller
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Muller | 0c | 19,700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Muller | 39c | 2,500$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Kecmanovic | 50c | 1,872$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.05 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Kecmanovic | 80c | 1,493$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.97 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Muller | 17c | 771.67$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.53 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…4d16backed Muller | 10c | 371$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Muller | 41c | 351.52$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Kecmanovic | 69c | 310$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.8 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Muller | 34c | 214.28$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.74 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kecmanovic | 79c | 212.33$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Muller | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Kecmanovic | 60c | 145.8$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 1,178 | 46.3%545 W · 633 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Muller | 18c | 74.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Muller | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Kecmanovic | 64c | 35.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Muller | 35c | 34.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Muller | 35c | 33.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.