MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x658f8093d8f5d2707f6e463367e8047ae33370d8d848f2b9ef514938a3aa8e84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Detroit Tigers | 68c | 1,057$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.97 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf43…306abacked Detroit Tigers | 66c | 811.66$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.91 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 12c | 544.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Detroit Tigers | 62c | 355.85$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.6 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 33c | 165.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.13 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Minnesota Twins | 33c | 136.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Minnesota Twins | 33c | 136.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Minnesota Twins | 33c | 136.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cb…4789backed Minnesota Twins | 33c | 136.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Minnesota Twins | 33c | 136.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Minnesota Twins | 33c | 136.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 70.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Minnesota Twins | 30c | 57.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 33.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Minnesota Twins | 44c | 31.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…5c13backed Detroit Tigers | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 3.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 4.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota TwinsNo Run won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.