MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x717f681385f1a344f16aeb918c8e6d5abe3d75c29b6fe305791a18b4204025e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Detroit Tigers | 27c | 6,537$1,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755.68 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 6,124$4,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626.25 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers | 20c | 1,900$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.7 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 1,008$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.88 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Detroit Tigers | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 292.33$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.7 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +59%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Detroit Tigers | 43c | 291.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.55 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Minnesota Twins | 67c | 241.03$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.59 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 169.94$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Detroit Tigers | 41c | 166.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 134.46$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 131.22$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Minnesota Twins | 77c | 130.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Detroit Tigers | 44c | 127.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Detroit Tigers | 42c | 126$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4147…902abacked Detroit Tigers | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Detroit Tigers | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Detroit Tigers | 42c | 90.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 88.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Detroit Tigers | 21c | 88.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Minnesota Twins | 56c | 79.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Minnesota Twins | 72c | 77.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…9edabacked Minnesota Twins | 80c | 74.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 70.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 133 | 48.9%65 W · 68 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 69.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Detroit Tigers | 29c | 68.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Minnesota Twins | 72c | 68.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 57.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 51.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 51.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 36.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 34.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Detroit Tigers | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 29.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…2c35backed Detroit Tigers | 43c | 28.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 23.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 23.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 3.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 4.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota TwinsNo Run won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.