Other European Leagues · resolved market
CD Tondela vs. FC Alverca: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65a9c29ce5aa2fe4e1c19eebf90c3c668f5cee6217d8dcc4247409e1cac20db9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 60c | 35,160$21,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,063.85 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 26,050$10,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,236.82 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 40c | 11,521$4,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,608.58 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 73c | 1,100$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302 | 88 | 73.9%65 W · 23 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 35c | 1,022$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.95 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 54c | 800$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 70c | 715.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.19 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 36c | 694.44$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 71c | 563.26$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.26 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…d73fbacked Over | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 64c | 459.27$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.95 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 458.61$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.75 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…22a0backed Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b8…99f3backed Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 34c | 210.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 72c | 194.44$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 144 | 68.8%99 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 64c | 152.06$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…9d2dbacked Under | 43c | 143.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5304…61cfbacked Over | 61c | 123.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 66c | 122.58$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Under | 43c | 116.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 37c | 94.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 16c | 78.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 65c | 77.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 278 | 64.4%179 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 123 | 61%75 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x957c…2965backed Over | 61c | 59.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0d…9f26backed Under | 50c | 46.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 39c | 37.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 62c | 35.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 478 | 42.9%205 W · 273 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Over | 43c | 32.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…54cebacked Under | 46c | 32.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 74c | 31.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 46c | 30.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc494…db1dbacked Under | 36c | 30.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Over | 64c | 28.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 169 | 52.1%88 W · 81 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Over | 50c | 25.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Tondela vs. FC Alverca: O/U 1.5this page
- CD Tondela vs. FC Alverca: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CD Tondela vs. FC Alverca: O/U 2.5Under won
- CD Tondela vs. FC Alverca: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Tondela vs. FC Alverca: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CD Tondela (-1.5)FC Alverca won
- Spread: CD Tondela (-2.5)FC Alverca won
- Spread: FC Alverca (-2.5)CD Tondela won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.