Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Grind Back vs GLYPH - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65ca1d4ad9d05aba5d3fb5db8b4be8094ec07c3a0fc74282ffb7ddbf613f74f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grind Backof Grind Back, GLYPH
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Grind Back | 35c | 525.19$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.83 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked GLYPH | 68c | 440.19$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.33 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed GLYPH | 63c | 270$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.8 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0f…e25fbacked Grind Back | 59c | 253.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5e…4a1cbacked GLYPH | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed GLYPH | 52c | 214$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.92 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Grind Back | 32c | 203.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.47 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Grind Back | 32c | 193.03$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.45 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Grind Back | 33c | 190.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.75 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked GLYPH | 56c | 185.61$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 235 | 55.7%131 W · 104 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed GLYPH | 61c | 90$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed GLYPH | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…a5edbacked GLYPH | 69c | 75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 406 | 44.6%181 W · 225 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Grind Back | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Grind Back | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…7658backed Grind Back | 43c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked GLYPH | 66c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…942bbacked GLYPH | 52c | 33.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed GLYPH | 58c | 32.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked GLYPH | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Grind Back vs GLYPH - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Grind Back vs GLYPH (BO5) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia PlayoffsGLYPH won
- Dota 2: Grind Back vs GLYPH - Game 2 WinnerGLYPH won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.