College Football · resolved market
Will Duke beat UNC?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65e179d9edb415923e4ed78f2a9d6a60b7b10a4afd2f84270284c4d5a5c90cd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dukeof Duke, UNC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed UNC | 53c | 6,000$3,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,207.3 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Duke | 52c | 5,819$3,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,793.06 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked UNC | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Duke | 53c | 1,397$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.51 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed UNC | 46c | 1,224$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.24 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Duke | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.06 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3b…ffcebacked UNC | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.29per pick | 35cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed UNC | 30c | 690$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcb…a83bbacked Duke | 19c | 370$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2e…dcfbbacked Duke | 11c | 300$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked UNC | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Duke | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Duke | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed UNC | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…c62cbacked UNC | 47c | 44.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -73%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb417…1e5fbacked Duke | 57c | 40.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…02f9backed Duke | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff44…3eaabacked Duke | 53c | 37.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Duke | 53c | 37.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed UNC | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Duke | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Duke beat UNC?this page
- Will Duke and UNC combine for 56 or more points?Under won
- Will Duke beat UNC by 3 or more points?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.