Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Team AION - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65e24ab530051edb8ce2c1da8e70ab13071342ce8444b1bffb565a812ff1f44d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Nemiga Gaming, Team AION
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08ee…ffe2backed Nemiga Gaming | 53c | 1,126$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.95 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e4…bd22backed Nemiga Gaming | 63c | 1,100$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.37 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Team AION | 24c | 918.1$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Team AION | 39c | 868.89$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.08 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Team AION | 57c | 800$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.18 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Team AION | 29c | 633.55$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.96 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team AION | 67c | 619.24$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.34 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e6…9c8abacked Nemiga Gaming | 56c | 593.3$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.3 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team AION | 30c | 557.72$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.52 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Nemiga Gaming | 27c | 437.81$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.1 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…1a89backed Team AION | 48c | 419.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Nemiga Gaming | 47c | 418.46$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.73 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…d03fbacked Team AION | 80c | 412.65$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.12 | 179 | 65.4%117 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team AION | 40c | 394.73$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.08 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team AION | 19c | 375.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.43 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d8…f6b6backed Nemiga Gaming | 71c | 326.65$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.73 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…f884backed Team AION | 53c | 324.18$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.13 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed Nemiga Gaming | 79c | 300.01$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Nemiga Gaming | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Team AION | 35c | 293.55$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.74 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae0…8661backed Team AION | 65c | 280.84$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.61 | 159 | 40.9%65 W · 94 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 66c | 277.78$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.74 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4339…beeebacked Team AION | 53c | 266.61$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.11 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 61c | 262.26$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.33 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c0e6backed Team AION | 72c | 214.3$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 222 | 59%131 W · 91 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…648cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…c8f9backed Team AION | 36c | 189.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.97 | 388 | 55.2%214 W · 174 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…0a08backed Nemiga Gaming | 70c | 169.66$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 64c | 159.88$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…a98abacked Nemiga Gaming | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 61c | 142.61$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…6b51backed Team AION | 46c | 140.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 420 | 53.6%225 W · 195 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Nemiga Gaming | 65c | 130.11$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed Nemiga Gaming | 80c | 125.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…05b2backed Nemiga Gaming | 80c | 124.22$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 78cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…fd61backed Nemiga Gaming | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Team AION | 34c | 111.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…b136backed Nemiga Gaming | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 324 | 45.1%146 W · 178 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…a74cbacked Team AION | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 592 | 54.1%320 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nemiga Gaming | 59c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Nemiga Gaming | 25c | 83.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 80c | 77.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…4400backed Team AION | 31c | 77.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3f…6816backed Team AION | 39c | 52.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…2035backed Team AION | 74c | 49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 332 | 65.4%217 W · 115 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b39…8593backed Nemiga Gaming | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Team AION | 67c | 44.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…dcb4backed Team AION | 61c | 40.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…8e54backed Team AION | 79c | 37.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc59…1b00backed Team AION | 59c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…1d2abacked Nemiga Gaming | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…223dbacked Team AION | 55c | 27.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 117 | 47.9%56 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…9ffdbacked Team AION | 60c | 24.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 56c | 18.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xe76a…47c0backed Nemiga Gaming | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Team AION | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7621…11aabacked Nemiga Gaming | 80c | 14.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 74cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Team AION - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Team AION (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group BNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Team AION - Game 2 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.