Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Team AION - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb59ecbcdc0645fc27c10ef0f551ddd22588c28fca5d07e34505217167680712
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Nemiga Gaming, Team AION
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Nemiga Gaming | 78c | 3,287$2,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.35 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…1e8abacked Team AION | 21c | 2,903$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.28 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed Team AION | 7c | 1,540$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…ffe2backed Team AION | 14c | 1,451$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team AION | 18c | 1,161$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.8 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…1e84backed Team AION | 17c | 1,034$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.5 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…5d73backed Team AION | 20c | 884.65$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.95 | 133 | 36.8%49 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 79c | 763.44$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.56 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Nemiga Gaming | 75c | 666.66$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.66 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team AION | 18c | 515.93$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0758…9532backed Team AION | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 184 | 37.5%69 W · 115 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Team AION | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Team AION | 19c | 434.35$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.17 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabd3…6635backed Team AION | 23c | 430.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d8…f6b6backed Nemiga Gaming | 77c | 422.58$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.03 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…12c2backed Nemiga Gaming | 76c | 395.53$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.53 | 192 | 51%98 W · 94 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b1…bf04backed Team AION | 20c | 337.17$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team AION | 18c | 321.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…e0b1backed Team AION | 33c | 303.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 263 | 43%113 W · 150 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Team AION | 20c | 300$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…99a3backed Team AION | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -17.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed Team AION | 27c | 207.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…c22bbacked Team AION | 11c | 204.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Team AION | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Team AION | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed03…1caabacked Team AION | 24c | 199.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Team AION | 17c | 118.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Nemiga Gaming | 79c | 108.54$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…a74cbacked Team AION | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Nemiga Gaming | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Team AION | 14c | 82.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Team AION | 20c | 82.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6f…1284backed Team AION | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Nemiga Gaming | 72c | 69.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…0a08backed Nemiga Gaming | 76c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…4400backed Team AION | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed Team AION | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x301d…81a5backed Team AION | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…1881backed Team AION | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc59…1b00backed Team AION | 29c | 59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed Team AION | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Nemiga Gaming | 80c | 47.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 274 | 59.5%163 W · 111 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…5504backed Nemiga Gaming | 66c | 25.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nemiga Gaming | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Nemiga Gaming | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Nemiga Gaming | 72c | 17.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Team AION - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Team AION (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group BNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Team AION - Game 1 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.