Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: Eternal Fire Passion (-1.5) vs Fire Flux Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65f25032d51a30417d7a888ecdacff88b617a6fd183e95cb055badbdc0e01c91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fire Flux Esportsof Eternal Fire Passion, Fire Flux Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed Fire Flux Esports | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 285 | 48.4%138 W · 147 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Eternal Fire Passion | 50c | 1,154$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.15 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…7531backed Fire Flux Esports | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 333 | 48.3%161 W · 172 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6c…d38ebacked Eternal Fire Passion | 46c | 794.4$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.42 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ab…13a1backed Eternal Fire Passion | 50c | 392.26$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Fire Flux Esports | 46c | 290.74$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 610 | 35.9%219 W · 391 L | -17.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9803…0242backed Eternal Fire Passion | 54c | 282.72$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.67 | 131 | 58%76 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…5a83backed Eternal Fire Passion | 46c | 159.23$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: Eternal Fire Passion (-1.5) vs Fire Flux Esports (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Valorant: Eternal Fire Passion vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - VCL Türkiye: Birlik PlayoffsFire Flux Esports won
- Valorant: Eternal Fire Passion vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 WinnerFire Flux Esports won
- Valorant: Eternal Fire Passion vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 WinnerEternal Fire Passion won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.