Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x660a7322e084a1ccc1f0301da9e044d59654d85d61365644336f2c0eb5629623
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 33c | 1,185$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.9 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc510…5c9fbacked Yes | 12c | 381.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 76c | 232.91$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 216.24$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 49c | 196.01$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.13 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 180.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ce1dbacked No | 64c | 162.13$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 138.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 36c | 133.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 130.9$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed No | 75c | 129.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 26c | 121.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 102.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 101.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 28c | 98.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 39c | 95.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 94.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 40c | 89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 87.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 29c | 85.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 83.63$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 30c | 80.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 59c | 78.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 75.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 59.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked Yes | 45c | 59.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 37c | 57.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 39c | 56.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0f…2823backed Yes | 27c | 51.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 38c | 46.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 30c | 46.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed No | 65c | 44.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…f0d4backed Yes | 35c | 40.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 40c | 37.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 54c | 36.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e92…b414backed No | 68c | 33.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fde…b0ffbacked Yes | 37c | 33.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 42c | 29.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…5fdcbacked Yes | 48c | 28.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked Yes | 38c | 28.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 55c | 27.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe4…d1c0backed No | 75c | 26.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 68c | 24.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 65c | 23.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 51c | 22.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…0247backed No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 17.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 13.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.